Re: Your first commercial purchase experience? - Posted by ray@lcorn
Posted by ray@lcorn on May 11, 2010 at 14:56:42:
Vic,
Good questions. Your intuition is spot on, and your time horizon fits this market well. This is a cash-flow environment for which the number one priority is structuring the deal for a worst-case breakeven. That’s not to say there won’t be opportunities for appreciation/flip type transactions, but most will have some “hair” on them, meaning a problem to be solved, before any exit is feasible.
As I wrote in the MHP book-- and further elaborated on in the Commercial book-- my preference is for doing the first few deals close to home. Whether you realize it or not, you know more about the local sub-markets and their political/economic idiosyncrasies just from living there, watching local news, reading the paper, etc., than an outsider would. In learning a new market you become the outsider. There is a home-field advantage, and I advise all investors to be sure they’ve used it before abandoning it.
My first commercial deals were all in my home market even though at the time my dad had business operations in several states. Two things drove the decision for me: money, and money. I needed to invest where I could get money and had no connections with banks other than the locals I’d dealt with as a builder, and second, I didn’t have the money to fund traveling and setting up shop in distant markets. (This was in the 1980’s, i.e. no internet, no cell phones, long distance calls were expensive and fax machines did a page a minute).
One of my first commercial deals was a foreclosure on a former restaurant building that had been converted to a tanning salon. I converted it to a Laundromat because I wanted a cash producing business. I sold it about five years later at a small profit and a large lesson about cash businesses. As you might guess there is a lot more to the story, but that’s another post.
Opportunities exist even in challenged markets. A reflection of this can be seen in the pricing for deals in the NNN sector with credit tenant leases (CTL) selling at significantly higher caps in markets like Cleveland precisely because they’re challenged by population loss, high unemployment, etc. Walgreens deals, the gold standard of NNN CTL deals, are currently priced at average 7.5% caps nationwide, but I’ve seen stores in northeast metros at 8%-8.5%. Granted, that’s not a smoking return, but the point is that you can benefit from the pricing inefficiency resulting from actual versus perceived risk.
The trick is to identify the sub-markets within the larger market that have the right factors (e.g. income, positive population demographics, employment, institutions, etc.) for long-term viability, and then identify the property type(s) that thrives in that demographic. You’ll get a better price on higher quality deals because of the perceived risk of the larger market factors to outsiders. So don’t count your hometown out.
Side story? Ground zero for low valuations seems to be Detroit. I got an email this morning for a bank REO strip center in Farmington Hills at less than $12 psf. I don’t know what the submarket dynamics are but if I lived there I would have known by noon. However, as noted in my 2010 Commercial Real Estate Forecast (included free with the book), the outlook for the retail sector is significantly challenged and in my opinion will remain so for some time. A lot of deals like this should come with a bulldozer and a demolition permit.
If you do decide to invest at a distance realize that the management costs will automatically reduce your return, and possibly property performance. All of us with experience can tell you war stories about managing the manager and the brain damage incurred dealing with the bad ones. (That?s why I included ?101 Questions for a Property Manager? with the book.)
After market and sub-market knowledge, property type matters just as much, at home or away. A MHP can be a good candidate for distance ownership because they are relatively simple to operate (assuming no rental homes), provide stable returns, and have a ready prospect pool of buyers. Also, subject to the retail caveat above, some NNN CTL properties have recession-resistant business models (e.g. Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Aaron Rents, etc.), have no management responsibilities and provide a bit higher returns than the marquee names. Owner-occupied single tenant office or office/warehouse buildings are a nice niche.
Types with more challenges at a distance… multi-tenant office and industrial properties are management intensive and highly subject to local market connections. Single tenant medical buildings are hot right now, meaning they?re probably over-priced. Apartments are suffering from higher vacancies and lack of pricing power in most markets due to over-supply of housing in general, and always subject to competent management.
Best of dealmaking,
ray