Posted by Rob FL on March 05, 2006 at 11:31:16:
Don’t look at me. I mainly invest in real estate and mortgages.
I do have a chunk back in mutual funds now, but that is all.
The boom is gone: Home sales fall 36% in Broward - Posted by Equity Hunter
Posted by Equity Hunter on March 04, 2006 at 19:38:24:
I remember posting a msg about 6 months ago saying “The Party Is Over” forcasting this. And some said I was negative. Well, go to the sunsentinel.com, which is the main newspaper there, and read about how one of the hottest markets in the US has drastically cooled off. Look under most frequently emailed on the right side of the screen. This article came out a couple of days ago.
I’m a student of the market and not the hype. I sold all my holdings there a yr and a half ago and got out, before Wilma. Now you can also read about how insurance rates there are going thru the roof and how the avg person (cop, teacher)can’t afford to buy a home there. So who is going to work all the low paying jobs?
Hurricane season is coming again in 3 months with no projected relief in sight for the next decade. People are starting to leave and investors have already left the market. So I see a big decrease in prices coming in that area. I’ll be there when that happens. Like I said before, the party is over. Not being negative - just telling the truth.
Re: The boom Part one - Posted by Bill Twyford
Posted by Bill Twyford on March 07, 2006 at 19:59:41:
Equityhunter is right… go to google and type in “Real Estate Bust.” Then go down to “bay area something bubble pops or something” about six or seven items down on the first page.
Bill Twyford 303-870-8851
ALWAYS MONEY TO BE MADE: UP OR DOWN - Posted by MaineRealEstateGuy
Posted by MaineRealEstateGuy on March 06, 2006 at 14:13:38:
If real estate rule #1 is: it’s all local, local, local… #2 would be: there is always money to be made in real estate, up or down market, regardless of anywhere, USA it is.
but, congrats. it sounds like you did well. got out and made some money. that is how it is done. good job.
All journalists are PROFESSIONAL W-H-O-R-E-S! - Posted by SMB
Posted by SMB on March 05, 2006 at 22:37:08:
All this yellow journalist wants is to draw attention. Panic sells. Read the same article, several paragraphs down it says: “Meanwhile, prices aren’t appreciating at double-digit rates as they did in recent years…” and then he says: Broward’s January median price of $370,500 and Miami-Dade’s median of $376,300 were up 19 percent and 26 percent, respectively, over January 2005 Duuh…So, I guess 19% and 26% is not “double digit” enough???
If his article would be titled “Double Digit Appreciation despite fewer sales” it just wouldn’t sell? Right? That’s why I say “W-H-O-R-E-S”!!
"But both median prices were flat compared with December. Who the hell would compare December to January?? You can’t! It’s statistically INCOMPETENT! because you don’t account for seasonality. It’s called INTENTIONAL MANIPULATIN OF DATA.
I just did a quick analysis of San Diego MLS for 2003 thru 2006. EVERY YEAR January was at 70-72% of December Sales. It’s a seasonal effect in this market, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were the same thing in FL as well.
Here is another exampe of Yellow Jouralism:
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=825069
Just boycott them. How many real estate journalists have you seen who made big money in real estate investing?
Re: The boom is gone: Home sales fall 36% in Brow - Posted by Pat
Posted by Pat on March 05, 2006 at 21:14:29:
Less than a week ago, the paper in my area pointed to a 10% increase in sales here. It doesn’t really matter because the investors who know what they’re doing will switch gears and sides of the street and still be successful. If there is a downturn, it’ll separate the wannabes from the serious investors and free up some space on the REI bandwagon. Bring it on!
all Real Estate is LOCAL !!! - Posted by Jimmy
Posted by Jimmy on March 05, 2006 at 09:27:42:
if you think otherwise, take a look at Austin. shed a ton of blood in 2001-3, but robust now. jobs growth is impressive, inventory of homes for sale is way down, prices up, up, up. and that includes the pricier stuff on the west side of town, where the tech wreck was particularly brutal.
There is not now, and never has been ONE REAL ESTATE MARKET. There are thousands of them. and, within the same zip code, there are multiple markets working independently of each other. Don’t Believe me??? compare commercial real estate in Silicon Valley in 2001-4 with residential. commercial got killed, but residential grew impressively. How can this be? or for the same period, compare 150K-300K residential stuff in Austin with 500K and up properties. one market was great, and one was Horrible. How can this be?
there are definitely places in the US where I would not invest, and there are other areas where I am aggressively acquiring.
Where are the investors going? - Posted by Downriver Brian
Posted by Downriver Brian on March 05, 2006 at 07:18:17:
Posts like this make me wonder…where are all the investors going if they are leaving the markets that are “cooling off”?
People say that investors are pulling out of Detroit…that because of the economy and the situation with the domestic auto industry, that the market is bad.
I’m just not seeing that. I’m finding buyers from out of state responding to my online adds and looking to get signed up for my foreclosure list all the time.
Where are investors going to buy if not in their area? Every area has it’s own “challenges” you have to deal with.
Go to DC and the market is still hot, but it’s very difficult to find a great deal unless you have an established network with other investors, or a serious and targeted marketing campaign.
Come to Detroit and I can find you deals all day, but do you have the stones to buy them, put a proper market plan in place to make your house stand out from the others, and flip it fast?
Go to CA and you have to have access to a LOT of money in order to even get in the game there.
I read somewhere that FL had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. If the market is still good there, why all the repos?
I still feel the same.
In a seller market: buy low sell high
In a buyers market: buy lower sell high
Better change your handle! - Posted by Innovator
Posted by Innovator on March 05, 2006 at 24:43:09:
You better change your name from Equity Hunter to Subject To!
This post verfies… - Posted by JT-IN
Posted by JT-IN on March 04, 2006 at 22:33:56:
That you are running a 25 watt bulb in a 100 watt socket…
You didn’t predict “Dick”… you simply hoped for it. BIG difference.
Re: Home sales fall 36% in Broward - Posted by Alvin Teabag Williams
Posted by Alvin Teabag Williams on March 04, 2006 at 19:57:31:
“Broward’s January median price of $370,500 and Miami-Dade’s median of $376,300 were up 19 percent and 26 percent, respectively, over January 2005.”
good thing you got out. The capital gains taxes on that extra 19% would have been rough.
Re: The boom Part 2 - Posted by bill twyford
Posted by bill twyford on March 07, 2006 at 20:02:33:
Read the article and at the end is a huge pile of stories from all papers across the country on the bust. Use these on your short sales folks.
To many characters per post. I’m challenged.
Bill Twyford 303-870-8851
Re: All journalists are PROFESSIONAL W-H-O-R-E-S! - Posted by Cletus
Posted by Cletus on March 05, 2006 at 23:04:15:
I signed up for that program. I’m still waiting for them to get back to me. I hope this is not one of those scam things. The hotel room bill is killing me.
Cletus
Re: Where are the investors going? - Posted by Bob Smith
Posted by Bob Smith on March 05, 2006 at 10:43:11:
>I read somewhere that FL had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation.
True, but as it’s still a strong market very few go to auction, and fewer still end up as repos because of the very crowded auctions.
Re: Where are the investors going? - Posted by Rob FL
Posted by Rob FL on March 05, 2006 at 09:16:55:
There are places to invest your money besides real estate. Stock market, precious metals, etc. Money has been moving into those markets lately and probably alot of other non-real estate markets.
Re: Where are the investors going? - Posted by Equity Hunter
Posted by Equity Hunter on March 05, 2006 at 07:51:22:
I agree with alot of what you say. The “investors” I spoke of that drove prices higher were really speculators that bought high hoping to sell much higher than current market values. They have left that particular market. I don’t know where the went or where they are investing there money at this time. All I know is they are gone either physically or financially.
The bottom feeders you speak don’t drive prices higher. They buy low to sell at market. We will always have those in every market.
Re: Home sales fall 36% in Broward - Posted by Equity Hunter
Posted by Equity Hunter on March 05, 2006 at 07:43:14:
The wise investor looks to the future and not the past. I would say 2005 was the last year you are going see these kinds of price increases. If you don’t think so then you should buy all you can get your hands on right now.
No one has a crystal ball to predict the absolute best time to buy or sell. All you can do is anticipate trends. The market has already spoken by the drop in sales volume and longer selling times. Price decreases will follow as a natural result.
Re: Where are the investors going? - Posted by Natalie-VA
Posted by Natalie-VA on March 05, 2006 at 11:20:12:
Hi Rob,
So how long do you stay in precious metals? I got in last August which would have seemed to be too late, but I’ve seen a 25% return since then. I’m wondering how high they will go. There’s a lot of type in that area.
–Natalie
How long will you own Inusrance? - Posted by JT-IN
Posted by JT-IN on March 05, 2006 at 11:48:11:
Natalie:
Rhetorical question of course… You will own insurance as long as you have something to insure… house, car, life, etc… Or until you can totally self insure.
With Gold and Precious Metals, they are nothing more than insurance for your buying power against inflation, and rapid devaluation of our currency and other assets. So the theory is that you should have a small percentage of your assets, (5-10%) in precious metals… and if the catastrophic financial event occurs, and the 90% of your assets invested in securities, real estate and other dollar denominated assets, lose their worlwide purchasing power, then the 10% in prec metals may be worth more comparitively than the 90%, pre devaluation.
So essentially the metals should be part of your overall financial plan… and in deciding what the purpose of owning the metal is to begin with… When that need is met, then consider divesting. For many, the answer will only be to increase or decrease the weighting of metals, as opposed to divesting all together…
Just the way that I view things…
JT-IN