Posted by robocoder on August 16, 2004 at 20:11:24:
In a bear market, don’t buy and hold stocks … short 'em.
The Baloney Is Up To My Eyeballs - Posted by Laszlo
Posted by Laszlo on July 22, 2004 at 13:39:50:
If you’re out on the street every day doing business,you
can help but notice that people are jumping into Real Estate
as if it were the “Eternal Pool Of Wealth” ie People looking for millions who should be paying off their credit card debt and getting back to work. It will end painfully,
guaranteed. It always does.
yeahhh, but… - Posted by ray@lcorn
Posted by ray@lcorn on July 22, 2004 at 20:33:41:
…it sure has been fun being a Seller! I’ve got one more apartment project almost ready to go!
Your “here’s to hoping it lasts just a little longer” host,
ray
Stock Market till the RE Sellers market is over? - Posted by BrianBM
Posted by BrianBM on July 22, 2004 at 21:41:21:
Hello people,
Obviously this is a sellers market with too much stupid money chasing after grossly overpriced properties. I have some money to invest, and I was wondering why not put it into the stock market NOW that the stock market is slacking. I think that as soon as the RE sellers market heads south, many will dump their properties and run into the stock market (by then I am already in).
But when the sellers market dies, and the stupid money starts running out of RE (hopefully into the stock market, then I can come come into the RE market and hopefully find deals that make good sense.
What do you think?
Stock Market till the RE Sellers market is over? - Posted by Joshua
Posted by Joshua on December 15, 2004 at 06:01:55:
Real estate like the stock market is cyclic. You can force value into the market. More real estate deals will be coming in the future once interest rates move up and this small hosing bubble bursts.
“Timing” isn’t the issue… - Posted by ray@lcorn
Posted by ray@lcorn on July 24, 2004 at 13:17:42:
Brian,
I think you’re making some “outside-looking-in” assumptions about both the stock and real estate markets that significantly affect the desired outcome.
First, on the stock market “slacking”… many opine (and I agree) that stocks are in the midst of a secular bear market, and will be for some time. Therefore critical to your success there will be the particular strategy you employ in creating gains. Specifically, “buy and hold” tends to be financial suicide in bear markets, so either hedge strategies or extensive research of specific equity issues will be necessary to profit in a climate where index and mutual fund investing is a sure loser. For more on that subject, including a very well documented prediction of the direction of the economy over the next five to ten years, read “Bull’s Eye Investing”, by John Mauldin. It’s the best book on macro-economics I’ve read in quite a while, maybe ever. It is available at Amazon.com.
Second, just what conditions will create the “going south” direction of the real estate markets? Are those conditions predictable? Imminent? Will these conditions affect all property types? All markets? If not, then which ones will be targeted for consideration? There is no national real estate… its local. For more of my thoughts on that subject, see this post http://www.creonline.com/commercial-real-estate/wwwboard5/messages/12030.html
In my opinion it is better to do a few things well rather than to try and do all things. My expertise happens to be in the RE biz, and I leave the equity markets to those that specialize there. Money can be made in any market, but only on a micro level. The macro trend of rising and falling markets are a reflection of the thousands of individual transacations reflected in the market averages, whether its the Dow Jones Index or the median cap rate for office buildings. Trying to guess ahead of macro trends without an understanding of what drives the transactional activity is no more than hunch-playing. For me, I’ll continue to focus my energy on the development of specific strategies for specific investments, and leave gambling to the casinos.
ray