Stats Indicating a Bubble Coming? - Posted by DavidB

Posted by Jimmy on November 21, 2006 at 07:24:50:

local realtor associations gather in these statistics. you can find out the current inventory of new homes and existing homes, the average days on the market, and the average sales price. and they should be able to provide historical info, so you can compare todday’s numbers with a year ago, etc.

the bubbles have already popped in most west coast cities, plus Phoenix and Las Vegas. inventories and days on market are up, and values have slid back.

I can’t speak for other Texas cities, but Austin is doing very well. The upscale areas on the west side of Austin (Westlake Hills, Rob Roy–stuff in the Eanes School District) were slammed pretty hard from 2003-5, but have roared back in past 18 months.

Stats Indicating a Bubble Coming? - Posted by DavidB

Posted by DavidB on November 20, 2006 at 16:49:19:

There are markets in the country now where real estate values are continuing to
rise, such as parts of Texas and Raleigh, NC. Aren’t there statistics that indicate
how much inventory is on the market and how long it is taking to move that
inventory? In other words, an indication that the market is starting to tap out.
For instance, in a hot seller’s market the stat is like 2 months, whereas a buyer’s
market is more like 12 or 15 months. I think it means with the amount of buyers
in the market the amount of time it would take to dispose of the existing
inventory, is that correct anybody?

Not an easy question… - Posted by Christopher Smith

Posted by Christopher Smith on November 23, 2006 at 01:19:03:

The National Association of Realtors tracks statistics on all things housing. Third Quarter numbers show that prices are down 1.2 percent, sales volumes are down by nearly 13 percent year-on-year, and inventory levels are peaking. Check out the National Association of Realtors website at

As for your specific question ? inventory levels ? this is a toughie. John Krainer of the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco took a shot at it in a recent paper. His conclusion: market statistics can be an indicator of a downturn, but they don?t tend to be particularly accurate unless they precede a particularly dramatic downturn. I wrote a blog posting about the subject at

Good Luck!

Christopher Smith