So, Put up or Shut Up!--Lesson in Life(Long Text) - Posted by Harold Whiteley

Posted by Harold Whiteley on May 10, 2002 at 12:44:31:

Re: So, Put Up or Shut Up!!–#-Crunching

Name: Harold Whiteley
Subject: Re: So, Put Up or Shut Up!!–#-Crunching
In Reply to: So, Put Up or Shut Up!!–Lesson in Life(Long TX) posted by Harold Whiteley on May 10, 2002 at 11:49:53:
Body of Message:

And…in regards to the expected profits from my heating oil Future…for every “point rise” in the price of the Heating Oil Future, would result in $12,500 realized at sale.

My background research showed that minimumly I could expect a 5 point rise in the price of winter heating oil (20 yr average low range) and up towards a 7-pt rise within the mid range, i.e., 7 (X) $12,500 base upon 1.25M gallons controlled = $85,500; and in the upper range: 9 to 10 points rise (again, based upon a 20 year aveage and regarding my established “Strike mark”) to feasibly yield in the range of $112.5K to $125K…WHOA!!!

Nice figures huh?..Yelp, they sur the heck were…but…“you know the rest of the story!!”…So, “don’t count your chickens before they hatch,” is what I learned being raise on our small family farm in North Central Texas…

Here’s wishing you the best in CREInvesting…:slight_smile:
You Can IF You Think You Can, plus network with the right people along the way…:slight_smile:

Harold Whiteley
Lewisville, TX

So, Put up or Shut Up!–Lesson in Life(Long Text) - Posted by Harold Whiteley

Posted by Harold Whiteley on May 10, 2002 at 11:59:55:

Name: Harold Whiteley
Subject: So, Put Up or Shut Up!!–Lesson in Life(Long TX)
Body of Message:

To also be Entitled: There Ain?t No Guarantees In Real Estate?Or In Life…OR…Paying for your “street smarts”…OR…There?s more than one way to loose your good hard earned money…OR…Paying for your “informal (street) education”-along with earning your formal degrees…OR…A penny wise can be a pound foolish…OR…You were never promised a rose garden, where you?..OR…The “buying low & selling high” strategy…OR…What will be, will be…OR…Getting too big for ya britches, huh?..OR…Expect (wish) the best to happen, but plan for the worst…OR…What goes up comes down (Law of Gravity & prices)…OR…Gosh, I never figured that particular scenario could ever happen!!..OR…Who would have thunk-it?..OR…You can?t cry over your spilt milk…OR…I don?t need YOUR help to lose MY money…(for I can do it on MY own, thank you very much!!)…OR…"Hey!!Don’t Play me as no-fool!!..OR…Simply doing your homework, doesn?t allow you to past the test…OR…You win some & you lose some…OR…Don?t put all you chips in one basket-(or is it eggs?)…Or…MAMA said there would be day (years)like this…Or…There ain?t no “Sure-Thing”, for SURE!!..OR…Learn a little bit?but Love a whole lot(Huh?–Do what?)…OR…Watch out about that “positive-thinking” angle-which can turn into “stinking-thinking”?in a heart-beat…OR…Keep on keeping on!!..Or…HEADS UP!!!..OR…You can?t give up NOW-you’re too far behind the 8-ball…OR…There?s some degree of LUCK in every CHANCE we take…Or…"Your OUT!!-next Batter please!!..OR…It?s the ?Home Runs? that wins games in the bottom of the 9th, not the number of strike-outs (but just a single would be nice every now and then)…Or…Swinging for the fences ain?t the BEST strategy in every game?s situation…OR…Give me a break,–please!!I need a stinking BREAK!!..OR…Hard to acquire, easy to lose…Or…Chalk it up to experience-and move on!!..Or…Hey, it?s the “Law of Numbers & Averages” that really count down the stretch…Or…There’s more than one way to “earn” an educaion, huh?..OR…Why did I do that?!!..OR…What was I thinking?!!..OR…If I had “Analyzed to I was Paralyzed,” it would have saved me a mint…OR…Play by the rules, win by the rules and lose by the rules, but not necessarily in that ORDER!!..OR…“Finders?keepers–losers weepers”…Or…"Man–oh–man!!..those guys play Hard-ball!!..OR…“It just takes a little-bit to lose a whole lot—but you can?t lose more than you got”(and I just made that up)…Or…Real Estate & Futures, -kinda/sorta the same animal…Or…whatever you might think of in relations to the following “true story” --learned along my life journey?s pathway…

So, lets go with? “Real Estate & Futures?kind/sorta the same animal”…And/Or…, “There ain?t no guarantees with real estate deals…or in life”…“So put up or shut up”…

True Story…

Back in the middle 90s, I was researching the Future?s market and I was doing my due diligence background search and checking into the various interconnecting relationships surrounding the Future?s marketplace…And hit upon the idea, via solid documentation-- for investing my money in “Heating Oil Futures”…for which, I concluded was the “safest” among the many categories of Future Commodities --to put my good ole “investment” money into.

Hey, if Hillary Clinton could put a measly $1,000 in the Futures market, to later successfully reap a $100K return, --what the heck, she ain?t any “smarter” than I am, huh? Right?..Oh, never-mind, and keep you comments to yourself, O.K.?..:slight_smile: Let?s move on…

So, I figured and figured that, at least, there is always a “human comfort need” for heating oil --during the cold winter months --within the NE, NC & NW regions of our nation…And when compared to other types of Futures, like coffee, a person can decide that they don?t want to drink coffee anymore, if the price per lb. goes too high for their liking or their family budget begins to feel a pinch, but with “heating oil,” there?s always a NEED to keep warm and comfortable. Case closed!!

So, heating oil it was. To the tune of controlling approximately 1,250,000 gallons of the stuff…or “liquid gold”…as ole Jed Clampet (Beverly Hillbillies) would have said it best.

My in-depth research reveal that it was smart to “Buy Low?Sell High”…DUH?-O.K.!!..(kinda/sorta like real estate, huh?)…but most assuredly -you need to “Buy Early” enough ahead to establish a monetarily advantageous “Strike Point.” O.K., I get the picture!! Let’s move ahead.

And looking at the last previous 20+ years of winter seasons within northern America, I could pretty much tell exactly --down to almost the very exact week timeline, when the price of winter heating oil begins its historical winter season climb and its “money-making-trek” upward…

Oh!!, the sound of money-making was heavy in the air, for sure…as I could hear the “KaChing” of my internal cash- register -sounding off in my money-making mindset.

What could possibly go wrong with my strategy and/or my invested money controlling 1.25M barrels of good ole winter heating oil???.. Stay tuned!!

Well, I found out “what” could go wrong. How?s this for a grand closing? In the winter months of 1995-96 (if I have recalled exactly, give or take one year?s timeline)…we experienced in the entire northern section of the United States and Canada…the WARMEST WINTER SEASON ever posted on the record-keeping national weather tracking books since the mid-1890s…Yelp, you got it…my invested Futures money that controlled “my” 1.25M gallons of winter heating oil??flushed right down the proverbial money drain!!

Of course, there?s two ways to play the game in the Futures market, either betting on expected HIGHS or betting on the unexpected LOWS…but I was just too “conservative” and too darn chicken to bet on the unexpected LOWS…so I went with the flow of over a quarter century of U.S. weather charting to put my money on the expected HIGHS --by buying LOW and hoping to sell HIGH when it turned COLD.

Turn COLD??HUH??Yelp, a Sure thing!!..?cause crunching the numbers don?t lie, huh? …Right!!

Moral to my Story?..Don?t be afraid to take a calculated risk, but make darn sure you can stand to lose the invested “time & money,” along with the self-inflicted internal brow-beatings-- if things head SOUTH on you, -as was my brief experience and personal encounter within the Futures Marketplace.

And I guess ole Hillary C. is, in fact, much smarter than I was --or I am,-- huh?..due to her having an "inside leg-up"on me --via her internal contacts within the Futures Marketplace. So, the other half of this story?s moral is: "It?s not necessarily 100% about WHAT you know, but WHO you know --that really counts in the final analysis, huh? So network wisely, my fellow CREIers!!

Anyway,…as our teenage daughter is fond of saying to her parents…WHATEVER!!!

Here?s wishing you Good CRE-Investing with Good Outcomes!!

With warm regards to all fellow-CERIers (Newbies or Seasoned),
Harold L. Whiteley
Southern Heritage Assessments
531 West Main Street
Bus.Suite 100
Lewisville, TX 75057-3628