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Ryan’s Journal: Will this hot market last? - Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan on July 05, 2005 at 13:36:57:
As many of you probably know, I’m pretty much a beginner. I started doing this seriously for the past year and got great successes. So far this year I have bought about 7 houses and they’re all turning out nicely, even with the one that I shouldn’t have bought. My income should pretty much triple if not quadruple compare to my previous salary. However, I don’t know whether I’ve been doing things right or whether the hot market in Seattle that’s been carrying me through these many months. I don’t want to get all cocky and then really regret it once the market goes south a little bit.
What has been your opinion in term of the market the past 5 years? Has it been consistent and performing as you expected? Or is this just a fluke? Is this too good to be true because I don’t want to see my dream come crashing down next year.
I’ll continue to protect myself by buying low (but low is so relative) and saving most of my profit instead of spending it all like a lunatic. I’ll also constantly educate myself to learn more skills and techniques to further distant myself from ignorance. Is there anything else I should do? I know there’s a bunch but I’d appreciate some help from you experienced investors.
Sincerely,
Ryan
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Re: Ryan’s Journal: Will this hot market last? - Posted by DaveD (WI)
Posted by DaveD (WI) on July 05, 2005 at 20:30:16:
It isn’t how you start, but how you finish. Are you hitting your goals… your numbers? Only you can answer that. Forget about the national trend. How do you feel about your neighborhood? Other responders have touched on this subject. Do you think your market has topped? If so, then don’t buy on the come. Don’t be an appreciation you-know-what. Shift your tactics where you either make your money going in (and holding long term) or can add tangible value by fixing either the property or financing.
It’s been my experiance those fret about the “hot market” are probably paying too much to begin with… and worried about their exposed backsides. If you have learned your lessons well, you now know how to make money regardless of market, interest, unemployment, political cycle or Pookie’s daily downer. 
-Dave
Re: Ryan’s Journal: Will this hot market last? - Posted by Mike (Seattle WA)
Posted by Mike (Seattle WA) on July 05, 2005 at 17:38:36:
Hi Ryan, long time no post.
I’ve finally found an ok deal a couple weeks back and bought my 2nd house of the year. 90% LTV, not a great deal, but enough in this market considering that it require 0 dollars work and I had a renter lined up before signing the contract. I’m about to do a marketing blitz here to stir up a few more leads. You doing bandits, direct mail, ads, or all and more?
Ryan’s Journal: Will this hot market last? - Posted by Bill H
Posted by Bill H on July 05, 2005 at 15:00:08:
Ryan:
The question no one can answer is “How long will this hot market last?”
The one major thing I see in the Seattle area is BOEING… in 1973 when the oil crisis hit and Boeing laid off about 75,000 in one fell swoop…there was a billboard on 1-5 heading south saying…“The last one out of town turn off the lights.” The Seattle area economy was and still is very dependent on Boeing and for the first time in history they no longer have their heqdquarters there in Seattle. They are in a very intense battle with Air-Bus for production and sales and Air-Bus is subsidized by the Europeans. I’d watch that situation very closely. I don’t think they will go under but they may very well be forced to downsize…they lost the Air Force Tanker business to EADS…so watch them closely.
From your post it seems to me that you are doing things correctly and prudently. One thing I think you should consider and take action for is “Equity Build UP”…this is fine and looks good on paper…BUT… will do you no good if the market collapses. SO, what do you do…build up your cash reserves…possible refi to get more cash…in other words try to have several months of “Negative Reserve” on hand in event things do go south for the winter.
Personally, I do not believe in being invested or leveraged “Up to the Max”…I always try to have $$$ on hand for emergencies and …also if the market turns…you got the $$$ to make the investments to further inprove your position.
Just my 2 cents.
Good Luck,
Bill H
Re: Ryan’s Journal: Will this hot market last? - Posted by Paul
Posted by Paul on July 05, 2005 at 14:18:08:
Ryan,
I am in much the same situation as you, but in a different part of the country. Columbus, Ohio is my home base. Anyway, I have been successful in my real estate investing endeavors, but have some of the same long-term concerns as you do. Anyway, I am a loan officer, and have a few observations that may help answer your questions.
Since interest rates have been low, for so long, pretty much anyone that had the ability to purchase a home bought one in the last 1 - 2 years. From a landlord prospective, this has caused some difficulty in finding quality tenants (all of the good ones, are now home owners). On the flip side, because the supply of potential homebuyers has increased the need for more houses, appreciation has increased (good for buy and sell properties). I realize that each local market is different, but for the most part this holds true for some portion of the housing industry. As you probably already know, interest rates are on the rise. So far we have seen a 1/4 - 1/2 increase in our long-term interest rates in the last 5 months. I like to think that once rates reach a point of equilibrium, the need for the supply of new housing will decrease. What that means for appreciation, is anyone’s guess. It sounds like you are protecting your investment by not spending too much, and saving most of you profit for the uncertain future.
I am not sure what your specific method of investing is, but keep in mind that markets tend to balance out in the end. I hope you find my observations useful.
-Paul
Can you share how you did it? - Posted by rick
Posted by rick on July 05, 2005 at 14:04:05:
Ryan,
Good to hear about your success. I’m in hot market too. Unlike you, I am not able to find anything at discount for almost a year. I’ve read many books. I’ve studied many courses. I’ve been taking lots of actions (mailing, calling, door knocking, networking etc) Working on this probably around 60 hour/week. I’ve tried many things. Yet cannot find anything.
Can you share how you find deals? You must be doing something different, cause I hear similar experience to mine from many other investors in hot market. Are you after pre-foreclosures? Don’t you have lots of competitors in your market? If so, why do you think you can pick up many deals?
I understand if you wish not to share this.
TIA
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Re: Ryan’s Journal: Will this hot market last? - Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan on July 05, 2005 at 17:47:57:
I haven’t done much marketing lately. I’m now confident that I could get at least 2 decent deals each month simply knocking on preforeclosures. Deals are simply not that hard to come by once you know what you’re doing. You could say that I’ve been lucky but I think my approach have taken me to another level. I’m no longer afraid to talk to sellers. Whatever problem they have, if they talk to me first and if I can’t help them, I don’t think anybody else could or would.
I have bought and in the process of buying my 7th house this year. Have sold 1 so far and in the process of doing Rent-to-own on 3 other houses. It’s been quite fun and the fact that I know what I’m doing makes it quite worry-free for me. Having some successes does help.
I still need to talk to you concerning the Rent-to-own stuff. Let’s meet later this week. I’m not that busy but all these running-arounds do take its toll on you.
Ryan
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Re: Can you share how you did it? - Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan on July 05, 2005 at 17:31:44:
I’d be happy to share any information I have. I’d like to give you a few important tips that I think probably helped me the most:
Do a lot of marketing (direct mailing to ugly properties, network with other investors, look at FSBO’s, knocking on preforeclosure doors with about 40k in equity…)
Learn the market well so you’ll know exactly how much a house is worth (getting access to the MLS is the most valuable thing)
Learn how to make accurate estimations on fixing costs
Learn as many investing techniques as possible (you have to know them inside and out) so you could provide your sellers with at least 5 different options to choose from. You have to be adaptive in order to do well in this business.
Listen to the seller’s needs. Don’t ask for the price, ask for what the want to get and try to deliver more than what they’d expect. Ask them if there’s anything else you could do for them. Don’t try to lower the price. Instead, find ways to work with them to lower as much costs as possible so that you could give them more! Once you do that, you wouldn’t need that many leads in order to find a good deal.
Get financing ready. It doesn’t have to be your capital… I don’t like to flip at all. Deals are hard to come by so you may want to get your feet really really wet so you’ll make more money and also gain much much more experience.
I ran across many leads initially but rarely was able to close on any of them due to lack of what I just showed you above. Now I don’t need that many leads but I could close on more.
I hope this helps!
Ryan
Re: Ryan’s Journal: Will this hot market last? - Posted by db-cali
Posted by db-cali on July 05, 2005 at 19:10:05:
Ryan,
I enjoy reading your journals. Please keep posting them.
I’m new to REI and I have been trying my hand at preforeclosures and
am still in the learning process. I was wondering about your approach.
When you knock on their door do you sort of play dumb about their
foreclosure and just tell them that you’re buying houses in the area, or
do you not mention anything about buying their house but rather tell
them that you can stop their foreclosure? I’ve been doing the latter. I’ve
been told it’s best to appeal to their heart before you mention anything
about selling.
Your response is greatly appreciated.
Dustin
Re: Can you share how you did it? - Posted by rick
Posted by rick on July 05, 2005 at 19:33:13:
Thanks for your help, Ryan.
“Don’t try to lower the price. Instead, find ways to work with them to lower as much costs as possible so that you could give them more!”
This sounds great, but I’m not sure what they are. Could you give me examples?
TIA
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Re: Can you share how you did it? - Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan on July 06, 2005 at 01:09:23:
Well, let say the owner has a 3-year prepayment penalty and has about 3 more months to go before it expires. If you know if this then you could ask the owner to wait 3 months before selling to you and save a bunch of money…
Let say the owner doesn’t have much money for the closing costs, you could ask her to do a subject 2 where you put the property in a trust and avoid the transfer tax…
Let say the owner needs 5k but you think you could give her only 3k, give her 2k more 
. That was a joke but if you know your market really really well then it could be a reality.
Ryan
Re: Can you share how you did it? - Posted by ski
Posted by ski on July 05, 2005 at 19:49:41:
Been in the business for a while. Have seen many go by the wayside. My advice is not to get TOO COCKY. I realize that one per month is pretty good, but what is your bottom line and the biggest question is WHAT IS YOUR EXIT???
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