Posted by David Butler on January 09, 2010 at 15:09:54:
Yes. And many related variations over the past 20 years.
Most of these have some validity one way or another - but like all things we discuss here… which approach to use, if any, depends on the individual’s proclivities, overall objectives for all three time-horizons (short/intermediate/long term), and CAPABILITIES - financial, risk-tolerance level, and knowledge-skill set.
Traditionally, real estate (and more particularly, residential real estate) has offered some of the most attractive forms of institutional financing available. This is especially so during the unprecedented extended period of low rates that have occurred in the market over the past seven years.
At present, we are still enjoying rates that are running more than a full 2.50% UNDER the historical average of the rate history I shared here back in February 2008 in the report “Priced to Own-Probabilities Producing Profits” at:
http://www.creonline.com/articles/art-334.html
“…the FHLMA average for 30-year fixed mortgages over the past 440 months (4/01/71–12/31/07) was 9.18%. Eliminating the 72 months (11/01/79-10/31/85) of rates 12% and higher, drops the historical average to 8.17%.”
Combined with the buying opportunities going forward over the next several years, investors who intend to stay in the game - and particularly those still in the wealth-building mode - would most likely be better served by CAREFULLY managing their use of leverage to fully maximize the benefits of these historically low mortgage rates, rather than paying them down. The critical trick to this approach is also discussed extensively in the above report link, so far is what and when to purchase income property.
For individual homeowners, and again depending on the the above factors, a turning point would be their current overall debt structure - especially with regard to their mortgage. If I have a currently attractive residential mortgage (any fixed rate positively amortizing, or fully-indexed ARM that are at less than 8.5%), I would certainly look at paying down any other higher cost credit I presently have first.
In such a case, I am effectively buying dollars from my mortgage lender at 8.5% or less (at U.S. Rule non-compounding rates), and selling them to my credit card lenders for more than 8.5% (at high cost daily compounding rates, which are significantly higher, and grow exponentially the higher the card rate is).
That’s a nice bit of arbitrage in any economic climate. More importantly, it is ABSOLUTELY a 100% risk-free investment, fully under the control of the debtor… regardless of any external economic or third-party influences.
Hope that helps, and Many Happy Returns either way!
David P. Butler
Nascent Equity &
Hotspur Investment Group