Posted by michaela-CA on January 17, 2008 at 06:58:44:
Marlene,
it all depends on what you do. If you find great deals and have an exit strategy - great! I just happen to be doing something else and won’t buy until the market is way lower.
Michaela
California market drops… - Posted by David Krulac
Posted by David Krulac on January 16, 2008 at 04:47:19:
California new-home sales fall 55% in November
Median price of new single-family houses sinks 12.2%
according to article at www.inman.com
Re: California market drops… - Posted by Kim in Kansas City
Posted by Kim in Kansas City on January 17, 2008 at 19:50:19:
Market has gone down in Kansas City as well, but under 10%. We have the same record number of foreclosures, but guess what they either break even in the higher appreciation areas (lease to own or rentals) or cash flow in the urban core. I have posted a bunch of links to Kansas City data on my blog - not sure if I can post it here http://tuckerone.wordpress.com/.
And it still does not pencil Positive Cashflow - Posted by Kenneth Hocking
Posted by Kenneth Hocking on January 16, 2008 at 06:12:42:
I looked in earnest to find a property in Riverside near my Family this Christmas… I could not find ONE property for sale at christmas where the Property would RENT for 1% of the Sale price.
This is a SMALL portion of California and may be too broad a statement for the Area in WHole… But can anyone name an area in California that RENTS are pulling 1% of sale price… That would be an area I would go look into!
Re: California market drops… - Posted by -Steve-
Posted by -Steve- on January 16, 2008 at 06:09:45:
Seems we are back to 2001 for California and nationwide. RE pricing is more realistic, stock market down turn, recession looming. The only difference is that many of those wanting out of the stock market as in 2001 put their nest egg in real estate speculating; but not this time.
Seems like a great time to build that new house or invest in RE, buy that new furniture or car. Bargains everywhere. It doesn’t get much better than this!
Re: And it still does not pencil Positive Cashflow - Posted by Gene
Posted by Gene on January 16, 2008 at 08:39:25:
>>>>>>>>>>But can anyone name an area in California that RENTS are pulling 1% of sale price… That would be an area I would go look into! >>>>>>>>>>>
TRONA
Probably Never Will - Posted by Jimmy
Posted by Jimmy on January 16, 2008 at 06:50:59:
people have amassed fortunes in California real estate. and they will do it again. My house tripled between 1997 and 2005 when I sold.
Clients of my CA law practice were my initial role models for my own REI activities.
Investing in CF negative properties, like investing in raw land, is a RICH MAN’S GAME. because you have to carry the property. most of us can’t do this.
but I guarantee you this: there are wealthy interests out there licking their chops right now, piling up their cash, and waiting for things to get worer and worser.
It doesn’t get much better than this! - Posted by JT-IN
Posted by JT-IN on January 16, 2008 at 10:01:22:
Until prices drop more… then I would say that would be better than this… which I fully expect to see repeat itself a few times over.
My opinion is that we are no where near a bottom in many markets, and the bottom could come in the form of 60% of the prices you see today. Now that would be lots better than today’s prices; just imagine.
Of course there is no way of knowing for a few years where the bottom actually WAS.
Just my opinion on things…
JT-IN
Where is Trona - Posted by Kenneth Hocking
Posted by Kenneth Hocking on January 16, 2008 at 14:29:35:
NT
Re: Probably Never Will - Posted by RichV(FL)
Posted by RichV(FL) on January 17, 2008 at 09:15:35:
Jimmy,
Oh yes…big money will be made in CA, NY, FL, Vegas, and all other high priced/high spec markets.
Talking heads in the media are trying to lump all of these markets together and find a national “bottom”.
Well that aint happening…some markets have bottomed out some are not even close. Its going to be state by state, county by county and town by town.
If people are smart this time around they will watch and pay attention to what is happening in their local market place and take advantage of this.
There is no doubt in my mind that inflation will drive RE prices and rents back up in the near future.
RichV(FL)
Re: Probably Never Will - Posted by michaela-CA
Posted by michaela-CA on January 16, 2008 at 10:17:03:
Jimmy,
you’re right! I’m right now concentrating on amassing as much cash as possibly, so that I will be sitting pretty in 1.5 years, when I expect the time to be for buying bargains here.
Michaela
Hard to predict - Posted by Rich-CA
Posted by Rich-CA on January 17, 2008 at 10:42:25:
Its very hard to predict even in a single market because there are so many factors from the kind of people who get elected (look at how the change of governors has trashed Michigan’s economy in just a couple of years) to where jobs move because the costs due to regulation and taxes are lower, and so on. I think some markets have already started recovery but, as is usually, we won’t really know until the recovery is in full swing. So I agree with you on that as well.
Heck, I don’t know why I’m posting this, I agree with pretty much covered by what you said anyway.
Re: It doesn’t get much better than this! - Posted by David Alexander
Posted by David Alexander on January 16, 2008 at 18:52:18:
Yeah… they think lowering interest rates is the fix… and it’s just a band aid allowing those that borrow money in large sums move it out of the country and make more…
Did you sound bite that Hillary threw out… let’s freeze all foreclosures for 90 days…
I guess she wants to write checks for other people nowadays that they have to cover…
Good grief…
I agree, we aren’t no where near the bottom…
But, then again… last time I checked… mycrystal ball was broke… Dangit… gonna get it fixed one day… lol
Re: It doesn’t get much better than this! - Posted by Jason FresnoCA
Posted by Jason FresnoCA on January 16, 2008 at 11:51:25:
I agree - another year and a half of depreciation will follow.
Here in Fresno CA - in 2001 a 1100sq ft SFR 3/1 was easily $80-110K. And we are no where close to those 2001 prices.
Re: Where is Trona - Posted by Rich-CA
Posted by Rich-CA on January 17, 2008 at 10:36:16:
Near the China Lake naval weapons center on the road to death valley from SoCal. Google “Trona CA” and you get a map.
Re: Probably Never Will - Posted by Rich-CA
Posted by Rich-CA on January 17, 2008 at 10:33:06:
Because there is no such thing as a “national market” there can be no “national bottom”. As to the high priced markets. I expect the to stay significantly more expensive than most other areas. Here’s why.
People move to Southern California for perpetual summer. I did when I moved from CT and virtually every person I met after I moved who was not born here did for the same reasons. I have lived in the SF Bay area for 25 years now and still cannot for the life of me understand why people are as attached to the area as they seem to be. Its a beautiful area, but that would be a “vacation beautify” as opposed to a living beautiful (like being able to count on nice weather no matter when your day off was).
NY will remain high because there are an enormous number of people in the area and no more land to build on. High demand for limited supply is the classic high price recipe in economics.
Las Vegas I do not understand. Its not a great area to live in, but it is close to CA for all the jobs leaving the state looking for lower cost climates (Phoenix also got a bunch of this). And much was speculation.
I really hate the idea of inflation driving RE prices and rents up because it also means the dollars I earn also don’t buy as much. But I agree with you that this will be the main support for increasing prices.
Re: Probably Never Will - Posted by MARLENE-CA
Posted by MARLENE-CA on January 16, 2008 at 23:22:19:
Hi Michaela,
What do you mean amassing? Do not buy yet? I am making
offers, low offers but I get beat-up by offers from homeowners. Expected time to buy bargains in 1.5 years? What do I do being a newbie? Any comments are appreciated.