Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here... - Posted by Ryan (NC)

Posted by Dale on March 20, 2011 at 10:31:02:

Ryan - we left NC in 2008. When we sold we had a very nice income and the temptation was there to hang onto the property. After we left - the local yacht factory where 18-20 MHP residents worked, laid off some workers so rents became harder to collect. Some say we left at the right time, but it was just a fluke on our part deciding to head back to CO for awhile. Things should start to turn around later this year. Hang in there. We also are looking at paying down some of the debt to have less outstanding mortgage amounts in the future.

Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Ryan (NC)

Posted by Ryan (NC) on March 20, 2011 at 04:35:58:

Many have noticed my “disappearance”, the reality is I’m still here tho not near as much as I was… Greg summed it up well with :

“we are asked for advice and I cringe to give any right now…my business plan is broken and I refuse to advise until it is fixed.”

My reality is different from many others here, our little rural area has been all but crushed by the current economy and everything I knew to be true has turned 180 degrees in the last 2 years. The old saying of “regardless of what happens there will always be a need for low cost affordable housing” has proved false here, people just up and left looking for work.

Here we face:

  • Corrected unemployment rates near 25% (9.?% according to the government after they dropped a bunch of people off the roles) Prob less now as people are voting with their feet.
  • 55% of family’s with school age children are receiving some form of public assistance.
  • estimated loss of 1200 household the last quarter of last year. (50kish total households)
  • estimates of 800 households already lost this year. (likely a bit high imo)
  • Loss of 1000 students in the last 12m in turn closing some of our schools.
  • School board that tried to play god and write off the constitution resulting in us now facing loss of accreditation and massive local deficits for attorney fees.
  • 25-50% reduction in most rental rates
  • Extremely high vacancy rates (40-50%) in most rental sectors.
  • Multi-family in the same unit is becoming normal.
  • Tax hikes via property re-evaluation to cover the “loss” experienced by the county.
  • Closure of most places of major employment.

It’s a buyers paradise down here as long as you aren’t needing to borrow money and can hold without income for a period of time. Problem is my model was based on other ideas.

What I’ve learned is:

  • It’s better to be smaller but clear and free.
  • You have to buy for fractions on the dollar to make sure that you have room to deal with problems, I’m honestly not sure 50 cents on the dollar is low enough in all areas.
  • ALL personal debt needs to be eliminated and expenses minimized in order to better handle unforeseeable market swings. I’ve watched 7 of my friends in the area go under over the last 2 years and the first to fall were the ones that had big fancy houses and lots of toys financed. The free and clear folks are doing fine and most are now buying up the bloody scraps.
  • CASH reserves outside of the banks are better than holding reserves on credit lines which can be shut off w/o notice.
  • Don’t kill the golden goose to try to do what is right, if one property goes down don’t let it take others with it.
  • Hit a snag and you will quickly find out who your true friends are… You guys & gals know who you are and I thank you for that!
  • There is NO good debt. (yes others will argue this but I’m living the reality of “good debt” gone bad right now)
  • Oil& gas heat SUCKS due to additional move in cost and needs to be offset & replaced at purchase.

What the future holds for me is uncertain at this point in time, I’ve taken on a JOB again trying to keep food on the table and am trying to liquidate holdings in a crazy cash market. I’m not dead and buried and I will be back but without mortgages of any sort.

The one thing I can tell you above all else is that Lonnie’s model works in all markets regardless of how good or bad. The product may change but without the Lonnie deals I most certainly would have joined my friends in the underwater club and not been able to fight long enough to where things started selling again.

I wish everyone the best of luck, I’ll be around. :wink:

Best wishes,
Ryan

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Chris in FL

Posted by Chris in FL on May 22, 2011 at 03:15:17:

Ryan,

Sorry to hear how tough it has been. Economy got rough across most of the country, but not many areas like that. Probably not too many investors that could ride out something like that. If I were you, I would consider relocating (Central Florida has it’s issues, but a slice of heaven compared to 25% unemployment). Great time to buy SFR here - rents have held up fine, and home prices are rock bottom. I am buying small 3 BR block houses about 25K including all repairs, that rent for $600-800/month, and multiple phone calls the day I put a sign in the yard. Also easy to get cheap labor because a lot of people need work. Come to the land of milk and honey! Hope you get it all worked out.

Best wishes,
Chris in FL

P.S. - Don’t misread my post about good debt/bad debt as directed at you - IMO there is still good debt - but maybe not where you are located! Where I am located, good debt makes tons of cents right now.

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Rick Ewens

Posted by Rick Ewens on March 21, 2011 at 19:05:16:

Ryan
I hate to hear about your temporary financial set back. You will definitely recover. I am one of the people who called on you when I was getting started in Burlington NC. I have also enjoyed your practical input on this forum and others.
The summary of what took you to this point in business and the lessons you learned are interesting even if they are personal.
I have had a few setbacks in my business life also. The lessons I learned from these temporary setbacks are now the foundation of my success. Lesson #1 small holes sink ships.
You will be back stronger than ever I am sure.
Best to you
Rick

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by JeffB (MI)

Posted by JeffB (MI) on March 21, 2011 at 11:48:45:

Hi Ryan,

Good to hear you are still alive and kicking, and thanks for sharing your insights and lessons learned.

Having never been to your area I’m not qualified to say this, but I know here in Michigan there are countless small towns that have gone through the same erosion of population you mention, especially in the more rural areas. I think it’s safe to say for most of those towns here, it’s not going to bounce back any time soon, maybe not even in my lifetime. Do you anticipate an eventual rebound in your market or do you think it will continue to die a slow death?

I agree with what you’re saying about Lonnie deals, they have been my saving grace as well. They are not nearly as lucrative as they once were, as apartment rents continue to fall, and lot rents creep up slowly (which are already far too high), the Lonnie dealer gets squeezed in the middle, and must be willing to take ever-smaller payments and extend the term of the notes in order to fill units.

Anyway, great to hear from you and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that things improve soon in your market.

Jeff

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Shawn Sisco

Posted by Shawn Sisco on March 21, 2011 at 10:44:29:

I sure hope this doesn?t come off like a jab at Ryan.

I can?t help but think that Ryan?s experience shows the need of having a thorough understanding of the LOCAL economy.

Here in Mid-Mo we have several towns that have lost their population base. Some were dependent on mining and EPA regs drove the cost of production up to the point that mining companies now operate exclusively in other regions of the world. Some were based on agriculture, and as mechanization improved, there was far less employment opportunities. Each of these towns has a story, a reason why it withered away, but you have to realize that fortunes were lost by landlords/lenders in each of these towns.

I love small town living, but I do keep in mind that investing in them carries more risk than investing in more populous regions.

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by joe–ga

Posted by joe–ga on March 20, 2011 at 19:56:59:

I have also had several friends go out.They had the
nice fancy pickups,the condo at the ocean and seem to
have the world by the tail.I now look and see I am
still standing,working a full time job PLUS 5 rental
properties, but its been tough.I have had to let some
renters start paying by the week, some properties I
have had to reduce the rent to keep them full, but so
far, I am hanging on.I have a knot tied in the end of
my rope, but hanging.The banks here are also not
lending,even with a 740 credit score…If you have cash
right now, you can buy some HELL of a deals, houses
selling for $69900 5 years ago, TEN GRAND CASH… I
agree, its best to stay small and not get in a position
where you HAVE to work 7 days and nights a week to keep
your head above water.5 years from now, we may look
back and say, WHY DIDNT I BUY that house for $10,000???

Great Teachers - Posted by Tony Colella

Posted by Tony Colella on March 20, 2011 at 09:02:48:

Ryan,

I admire your willingness to post the harsh realities you face. I told Greg Meade the same thing. You both are great teachers and have helped many. I understand that your investments have been hit hard and by telling others how it happened and in time how you overcame it, you two will be the leaders of tomorrow for us all to learn from.

It is hard to admit things went wrong, bad decisions were made, changes outside our control hammered the business etc.

I spend as much of my time as I can to try and find ways of adapting and even then I don’t feel I do enough.

My business has been hit but not as hard as yours. My rentals are still holding their own but life is by no means easy. I have sold off some properties to cull the herd but more so to limit the exposure and obtain needed cash.

I have several investment anchors that concern me still and those were made in times where I fell victim to the ease of it all (the easy bank money, the easy buy, the easy deal). I fell victim to my own overconfidence on those couple deals and did not do the due diligence I needed and I will not only lose money but likely scrape buy with those units for many years to come before I can do something with them.

The blame game for me goes like this. I blame myself for my mistakes. I blame local gov’t for their changes and I blame the economy on macro players such as gov’t, banks etc. AND THEN I stop playing the blame game.

I can’t change any of those things. I can only endeavor to find the best solution at present to attempt to weather the storm and hope to perfect it to capitalize on it.

We need great teachers more so now than ever. Great lesson come only through great trials and tribulations. We did not learn to walk by running. We learned to walk by falling and failing.

Hard decisions will have to be made. Great efforts will have to be put forth. We will survive one way or another. The things we may lose are wordly possessions that mean little as time goes on and less during hard times.

Most of the successful people I know have lost great fortunes at least once and most did so through no fault of their own. Ray Alcorn is a perfect example of a great teacher and wise investor who was forced into BK by banks and gov’t years ago through no fault of his own, just a change in gov’t policy regarding the type of loan he had that made the bank call it due, though no payment was ever missed by Ray.

Ray and his family faught for years and came through the BK no doubt emotionally spent but with their business intact. They paid everyone every dime they owed and to this day are very successful because of it.

The overnight “gurus” who do two deals and pump out a book and course have no experience to fall back upon during the good times much less the hard times. It is teachers like you and Greg that will become the Ray Alcorn’s of our tomorrow.

Tony

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Tarheel T

Posted by Tarheel T on March 20, 2011 at 06:26:30:

Ryan,

You are smart, hard working, and honest. My bet is that in 5 years you will have overcome this wiser and better than before.

Tracy

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Ryan (NC)

Posted by Ryan (NC) on March 22, 2011 at 06:37:01:

I’m 99% sure our market will rebound, we have to much access to raw resources, manpower, and relativity cheap industrial power due to hydro dams. The biggest hurtle right now is the government officials on a micro level combined with the powers that be on a macro level… In other words we are getting it from both sides.

The bright side is we seem to have hit bottom (or are near it) as things are starting to move a bit again. There is no financing to be had but there are some cash players starting to make moves and the rental market as a whole is showing positive trends. Tax season has been much more towards “normal” this year as well.

Best wishes,
Ryan

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Tony Colella

Posted by Tony Colella on March 21, 2011 at 11:22:48:

I now live in the area that Ryan invested in and I recall years ago that he was aware of the high unemployment rate and had taken it into consideration.

There were other factors such as the assumption that affordable housing would always be in demand. It still is but what I see in this area is the decrease in stick built rental rates and apartments that people who would otherwise have rented a nice mobile home are now renting the other property classes. This has surpressed the mobile home rental market.

I spoke with a local realtor who recently purchased a 10 unit apartment building in this county. It was fully rented in a couple of months but the rents were lower than traditional had been the case. Even he commented about the trouble trying to rent mobile homes in this market in this particular area.

I am not seeing the same effect in Asheville where I have my properties. Only an hour away but Asheville is a unique tourist destination that inflates most everything. Demand did drop but which meant I worked harder to fill vacancies but they did and do fill.

I was fortunate enough not to have many vacancies at one time or even a large turnover. I realize that this well could have changed and that would have been a huge challenge for me just as it was Ryan.

Tony

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Tarheel T

Posted by Tarheel T on March 21, 2011 at 05:27:12:

Joe your comment about buying the $10,000 houses made me think of a favorite quote by one of the greatest investors of all time Warren Buffett: “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy”.

Re: Beat Up & Bloody But Still Here… - Posted by Bernd Hanak

Posted by Bernd Hanak on March 20, 2011 at 09:41:13:

Ryan?s post is unequivocally the most significant and conceptually the most reality- oriented post that I am aware of for at least the last twelve months. Although specific locales and individual circumstances may have their own characteristics, his evaluation of the present and its implications of trends can hardly be challenged. Ryan?s brutally honest confession under the heading, ?What I?ve learned?, should read like a Ten Commandments for all of us, indeed, for our nation, to reasonably survive the resolutions required for past mistakes. It behooves every one of us to give serious thoughts to his philosophy and its practical applications. Thank you, Ryan; you have made my year.