Posted by ray@lcorn on September 23, 2000 at 14:18:49:
Mike,
This is surprisingly similar to a post that was written here about a year ago. I saved the post because I wrote an extensive reply that drew on my experience in building over 100 modular houses. I am still active in the industry and have a current project that uses modulars.
I’m going to copy my reply to the earlier post below, so read it with the knowledge that there are some comments specific to the deal that was presented in the original post. However your role in this transaction strikes me to be very similar… I don’t think you are entering the right side of the business to truly profit.
After that, I am going to post separately a copy of an article that is in my files about modular housing.
These are both long posts, but I think you would benefit from the information. let me know if I can help further. I host the commercial discussion forum here on CRE Oline, and would welcome you to discuss this deal there. We have a number of experienced builders and developers that frequent the commercial forum and I think you could gather more insights there as well.
ray
copied post****
Posted by ray@lcorn on November 08, 1999 at 12:05:48:
In Reply to: Buying Land and Building w/Modulars posted by Ed (Phila) on November 07, 1999 at
13:49:00:
Ed,
Like Phil, I’ve “been there, done it.” I was a modular builder for about a dozen years. I didn’t quit because I was making so much money I couldn’t find a place to put it.
A few observations:
First, there is absolutely NO way I would count on a realtor, any realtor, for my zoning and permits. I may be a control freak, but in my experience a realtor has too much going on just trying to make a living to give the permitting and zoning process the attention it needs. Which brings up another issue… if the land you are looking at isn’t already zoned properly, then you just added about two months to the due diligence process. Buy it only subject to zoning approvals (if you are still so inclined after reading the rest of this post).
Second, you need to realize where you are in the food chain. With a landowner (seller), a realtor, a modular manufacturer, and a builder involved, you should ask yourself the question “What do they need me for?” The answer to that question is simple… your money or your access to money. Understand that while all these people are willing to make your investment painless and as management free as you would like, at no point have any of them offered to work for free. I wouldn’t either, and I would guess, neither would you. Each of these parties must profit to continue in business, and rightly so. They are providing a service to their customer. In fact, you are the perfect customer… you don’t know much about the process, have plenty of cash and/or credit, and are willing to turn both over to intermediaries to use as they see fit, and you won’t be living in the house, which means their warranties expire when you sell the house. Make no mistake that each will profit regardless of whether you do or not. In this scenario, I would want to be any of the above parties but you. The land seller gets his/her profit when you close. The realtor is guaranteed of two commissions, one on the land sale and one on the house. The modular manufacturer gets their profit when they deliver the boxes. The builder is getting a cost and risk free line of credit for construction loans, and a guaranteed profit going in. You, my friend, are last in line, and as such will be the one to bear the brunt of any market hiccups, cost overruns (I’d bet on that) and closing concessions/warranties to the retail buyer.
When I was building, I found landowners that were motivated to sell to me below market on a subordinated basis; I bought the house packages direct from the manufacturer at the lowest wholesale cost including volume discounts; I controlled the zoning, permitting, and building process from start to finish; and I sold the houses (in the rare case they weren’t pre-sold) through open listings, reserving the right to sell them myself without commissions being due. The realtors didn’t like it, but it wasn’t their money and credit on the line, and I did a lot more marketing than they would ever do. And with all this control, I counted myself lucky if I netted 10% on the deal. Tough way not to make a living. You’re looking to net 10% and do none of the work. I’m skeptical, to put it mildly.
Third, I question the numbers you related. I’m not familiar with your market, but there are a couple of things that just don’t change regardless of market. Most builders and appraisers will tell you that an average ratio of lot to finished house cost (retail) will be between 5:1 and 6:1. That is to say that if the final retail price of the house is projected to be $300,000, then the lot shouldn’t cost over $50-$60,000. (300,000/5 or 6) It takes a strong market to justify 6:1, and an exceptional one to justify 5:1. Your deal as described is at a 3:1 ratio, which in my experience is unattainable. There are a lot of reasons for this to hold true, the explanation of which is too long to go into here. But don’t take my word for it, call up a DISINTERESTED third party such as an appraiser or a lender and see what they say.
Finally, I would question your assumption of 80% financing. Most residential construction loans are done on a 100% of improvements basis, which is to say unless you are the end user (i.e. retail buyer with a permanent loan commitment), they don’t finance the land. That is why it was important to me to get the land subordinated to a construction loan. This may or may not hold true for your finance source, but I would be very careful to check these facts from the source, and not take information from the realtor and builder at face value. Also understand at what point you will be asked for loan curtailments. The lender will want to be out of the deal entirely in one year, regardless of whether you have sold the house.
As to modular housing as a housing type, I couldn’t be more positive. They are hands down the strongest and most well built house available anywhere. There are inherent limitations as to design because of the use of sections, but the manufacturing process of the house itself is far superior to site built housing. Contrary to popular belief, there is no real cost savings on hard costs. The savings accrue in speed, and as such are entirely dependent on the skill of the contractor doing the field finish work. Modulars require some expertise not usually required in site building because of the exacting standards under which they are produced. For example, foundations musty be built within one-half inch of square, and one quarter inch of level. Many block masons will laugh at that kind of accuracy. They are used to site built standards with an inch or more of leeway in both directions, because the builder can “make it up” as he takes the structure to the roof. On a modular, the sections either fit or they don’t, and when the crane pulls out, those boxes are tough to move. So as a result, the quality of the finished product is very dependent on the skill level and experience of the contractor. There are also special considerations in the electrical, plumbing and HVAC systems that are unique to the breed.
The only ways I have found to really make money in residential building was to either do all pre-sold, price guaranteed contracts with change order provisions, or to control the land, building and sales function. We are currently doing a project by the latter. We bought undeveloped land, built a subdivision, have an experienced modular builder to build at cost, and will market the lot/home packages on open listings with a friendly realtor to give us exposure on MLS. All we are giving up is the volume discount from the modular manufacturer, but I know exaclty what that is and am content to let the builder have it. We will subordinante the lot cost to the builder’s construction loan, and will be out of the loop when the retail deal closes. And with all that control, it remains to be seen how much profit will actually hit the table.
So take a real hard look at this “deal”. From my seat, you are a buyer, not an investor. Hope this gives you some things to think about.
ray