Re: 4 plex purchase @ 10% CAP? Thoughts? - Posted by ray@lcorn
Posted by ray@lcorn on January 20, 2003 at 19:02:06:
Alex,
You don’t say whether the numbers are real or estimated. If the latter, then make sure you get the real numbers before figuring your deal. I don’t know what you have incuded in the expenses, but make sure there is a provision for management. Also, assuming you’re using the magic 5% vacancy and collection loss figure, that leaves about $2,500 for maintenance. ($624 per unit per year) Without knowing the condition of the units I don’t know if that is low, high or about right.
In the first scenario, assuming 20 year amortization on both loans (which may or may not be the case, info not supplied), then the payments will be $10,317 on the first, and $1,316 on the second, leaving net pre-tax cash flow of $3,336, for a return on your $15,000 of 22%.
For the second scenario, assuming again your 1st mortgage terms are for 20 year amortization, then the payement remains the same ($10,317), but your net pre-tax cash flow will be $4,652, and the return on the $30,000 invested will be 15.5%.
If the amortization period(s) differ from my assumption you need to recalculate the numbers.
That makes a good case for the first scenario, but that’s not the only factor. In the first scenario the break even economic occupancy is 87%. In the second scenario the break even is 81%. Another way to say that is by using the lender’s measure of debt coverage ratio. In the first scenario there is $1.29 of NOI available for each dollar of debt service. In the second, the DCR is 1.45. On a small property the standards are in that range.
I’ll show you another way to look at it to demonstrate why small projects are very sensitive to vacancy and collection loss. In this case, the units have an average rent of $520. In your first scenario the cash flow ($3,336) is equal to one unit vacant for six months. That’s a tolerable margin for error in a decent market.
For more information on how I made these calculations and some food for thought, see my article at http://www.creonline.com/articles/art-203.html
Subject to hearing the actual amortization periods the deal could be a good one.
ray