Posted by Dr B(OH) on February 06, 2009 at 14:25:12:
Thanks Shawn,
Yes, I knew they were new home sales.
On second thought, I concede, it follows that there are more used homes than new homes sold in any given year just like stick builts. So now I’m wondering what the trends are for used home sales.
Steve
333,000 in park sales - Posted by Shawn Sisco
Posted by Shawn Sisco on February 06, 2009 at 09:05:37:
A few years back Marty Lavin estimated total anual re-sales, I stumbled onto this article with more current info.
Does anyone have an opinion regarding new home sales dropping below 75,000? Will new manufactured homes (for MHP’s) ever be built in number again?
Re: 333,000 in park sales - Posted by Dr B(OH)
Posted by Dr B(OH) on February 06, 2009 at 10:52:31:
Shawn,
My read of Marty’s other writings suggest that general chattel lending is basically over if the industry doesn’t make significant changes. He cites 3 periods of time when the lending industry has essentially subsidized the industry by lending too much money then losing it to defaults.
My guess is Warren Buffet may have seen this coming. If you buy the best and strongest company in the industry and the others disappear, who will MHP owners have to buy from?
It is unlikely that MHP owners have bought and re-sold 333,000 homes in 2008, equaling or beating out each of the years 1995-1999 when lending was to anyone who could fog a mirror. Also, if that were true, there would be few vacancies and MANY large parks would have closed.
If I’m reading the article you posted right, 333,000 divided by the ten yrs between 1998-2008 only gives about 33,000 in resales. Lets say half of those had to be moved. This seems realistic as only a limited number of MHP owners are willing to front money to buy, move and resell homes. Yes, Lonnie dealers have moved a number of them too, but, other than Karl Kleiner, I doubt any LD has moved even 500 homes.
Steve
Re: 333,000 in park sales - Posted by Shawn Sisco
Posted by Shawn Sisco on February 06, 2009 at 10:59:16:
Steve, I was thinking that the 333,000 represented MHP sales, FSBO, Lonnie’s and any other type of resale in park. By the way, those numbers of 1995-1999 are new home shipments from builder to dealer, Used home sales were not included.