Business Week: Worrisome Real Estate Trend(s)... - Posted by Pookie Wookie

Techniques for a hot market - Posted by John Behle

Posted by John Behle on March 19, 2005 at 18:54:30:

I don’t have much time right now, so I may need to do this in a couple parts - but here is a start.

In a hot market, there are many approaches for profitable investment.

1 - Don’t wanters are always available.

In any market, there are still “don’t wanters”. People get transferred, divorced, get into financial trouble, etc. There are still foreclosures. In a great market, there may be many at the sale, but the key to foreclosures is getting there long before that. Bidding at the sale is one of the worst times and approaches to foreclosure investing. Finding properties before the sale is advertised is better. That means finding them once the notice of default is filed. But, getting there before that is even better. Many times there are comments in the listings like “nearing foreclosure” or something similar.

You might be able to negotiate a sale with good terms on a pre-forclosure deal, work a sale-lease back with the owner or make a hard money loan to the seller to keep the home and profit from the loan. If the margins are good (LTV ratios) you can have a safe loan and if not, a discounted property.

The same things work for other don’t wanter sellers.

2 - Profit through the loans.

Sometimes you have properties with bad financing. Just consolidating loans, refinancing for lower rates or even getting a loan with a longer term can raise the value or marketability of a property. In particular, you sometimes end up with apartment buildings where the a high loan constant kills the cash flow.

The “Paper Trade” technique is one that can work in a good or bad market. Even in a good market, there are still people willing or in some cases that need to sell with seller financing. With the “Paper Trade” technique, you can pay market for the property and achieve your discount by buying existing paper (seller financing, private loans) at discounts of 20-40%.

Sometimes the easiest deals are with properties that already have existing seller financing on them. You can then make your profit by using discounted mortgages in trade to the holder of the seller financing.

Regarding financing also, you can make profits in a good market by looking for existing financing on properties that are a couple points or more below the existing rates. You can then arrange to buy the property, assume the financing or take title “subject to” and then sell it on a wrap at a higher rate.

You buy a $100,000 property and sell if for $100,000 and make a couple hundred dollars a month for the next thirty years. All with none of your own money needed or invested.

3 - Change the use of a property.

In a good market, the potential for changing the use of a property is an excellent way to make profits. For example, converting an apartment building to condos. Or what most people don’t realize is many times you can do a co-op for much less and not even have to make major upgrades or repairs.

You can find land in the path of progress. You can get a property re-zoned. You can do “earnest money options”. The later is a technique where sometimes you can tie up a property that is being built for a very low amount at it’s current market price and then sell when completed at a much higher price. When I started in real estate in both selling and investment, my first brokerage was a developer and we bought and subdivided the land, sold lots to builders and then sold the homes when they were built. We could tie up properties sometimes with as little as a hundred to a thousand dollars in earnest money and it might be worth 5-10k more when finally finished 3-6 months later. Lending and building procedures can make this harder and more complicated these days, but it can still be done.

4 - Change the condition of a property.

Even in a good market, a property that is run down, ugly, needs specialized repairs, etc. can sell for much less than they are truly worth. A gallon of paint can be worth a thousand dollars. Here’s an example. My first listing in real estate had a kitchen that was very slanted. It drove almost every potential buyer away and those that checked into it more came back with estimates of as much as $40,000 to fix the foundation. I had already entered into the exhange world and pitched it at our exchange meeting. A creative mind there ended up picking the deal up at about $50,000 less than it was worth and only spending $5,000 to jack up the foundation where it had slipped.

As I said, time is limited and I need to go, but I’ll add to this later if I get the time and addition ideas or examples.

An answer for you - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on March 19, 2005 at 14:28:08:

Randy,

>>>>>So how would you make money in this market?

Buy high, sell higher. Use the market momentum approach to investing.

As long as you can anticipate the market’s peak, and you have the guts to take high risks, this investment technique should work. :o)

Robert Campbell

Re: Doom and Gloom - Posted by Cletus

Posted by Cletus on March 18, 2005 at 14:27:18:

I have a broken I clock I keep in my refridgerator because all the other clocks I have are never at the right time, but that one in the fridge is always right twice a day.

Hope this helps

A Bedroom? - Posted by Killer Joe

Posted by Killer Joe on March 20, 2005 at 22:21:57:

Abby,

Did I read your post right?

How are you planning on making a bedroom addition work out? I’d like to see the numbers on that one. Could you explain in greater detail?

Thanks KJ

Ignorance is bliss… - Posted by Pookie Wookie

Posted by Pookie Wookie on March 20, 2005 at 18:10:00:

At least you seem to be pretty entertained.

I quoted an article in a Respected Business Magazine that contained interesting statistics from the NAR. I know this stuff is probably over your head as to how it may be useful information in making decisions. So why don’t you just focus on looking at the pretty pictures. :wink:

Re: Techniques for a hot market - Posted by Wayne-NC

Posted by Wayne-NC on March 20, 2005 at 08:04:47:

I am still somewhat troubled with item #1. True that those sellers do exist in every market however,but even they can sell for top dollar. Anyone can, and that explains the true hot market. So, why would they negotiate with an investor? Maybe they just don’t know what their home is really worth because they were living under a rock for some time. Item #2 is interesting. It gave me an idea. I can put a twist on that and use it in my hot market.

Re: An answer for you - Posted by Mark (SDCA)

Posted by Mark (SDCA) on March 21, 2005 at 11:56:54:

This is known as the greater fool theory.
Also known as musical chairs.

Play at your own risk. Personally, I would NOT want to own an investment property that I bought for 500K that I am trying to sell for 600K that is suddenly worth 250K because I mis-anticipated the peak.

(The assumption that anyone knows when the peak is HUGE. And IMO naive. If they did, they would never post here, never sell books and tapes. Just buy at the trough, sell at the peak. It’s a widows and orphan’s fund.)

Mark

Well… - Posted by randyOH

Posted by randyOH on March 19, 2005 at 16:18:47:

Thanks Robert, but I really don’t see any upside left here in OC. I obviously cannot rule out some further increase in prices, but I don’t think there is enough to make any money with. You would need at least 10% just to breakeven, right? So any other ideas?

But, then again, maybe your suggestion was tongue-in-cheek. I thought your thinking was similar to mine on the SoCal market.

Regards,
Randy

Re: Doom and Gloom - Posted by Wayne-NC

Posted by Wayne-NC on March 18, 2005 at 14:40:31:

Sooner or later all clocks break. As I said before,at some point in time everyone (clocks in this case) will be right, just not all at the same time. The real trick is to pick the right one BEFORE it becomes right. When that happens, read it. I love the phrase, “see, I told you so”. (Seems like I read a book with that title, and it was right on). One says Doom and the other says Boom and one will be right at some point in time. My job is to pick one and I have a 50/50 chance. Or maybe it’s an educated guess. Invest on!

Re: A Bedroom? - Posted by abstract

Posted by abstract on March 22, 2005 at 12:20:47:

Hi there K.J., on that project, I acquired a property in So.Cal, the property was a 2 bed 1 bath 900 sf, on a 5000sf lot, comps were 300k ARV, comps in this area for a 4bed 2bath, are 415k, so I bought it for 220K with seller credit back at 15k,
Purchase price: 220K
Credit @ close: 15k
Add 1bed1bath : 40k
Sale price : 405k
So I think there are always deals in hot markets, you just have to figure how to make it a SMOKING DEAL!

Re: Techniques for a hot market - Posted by David Alexander

Posted by David Alexander on March 23, 2005 at 20:47:02:

Most of the time they are too focused on the problem and don’t plan on selling until they find you… the solution… at that point it’s about speed and the correct solution… their problems in life are bigger than their real estate problem…

David Alexander

Re: Techniques for a hot market - Posted by Natalie-VA

Posted by Natalie-VA on March 20, 2005 at 08:40:12:

I am in a hot seller’s market and have a good example of #1. The seller contacted us because they needed to sell their house quickly. Their payments were current, so foreclosure was not pending. What happened was the husband got a job offer in another state and was already gone. They had also put a house under contract in the new area contingent on selling their home here. They didn’t allow themselves any time to make that happen. They happened to be incredible slobs and their house and yard were just full of junk. By the time they called me, they already had an agent over there who told them all the work they would need to do and that they would need to discount the house deeply. I swooped in, made them an offer to close in 7 days and they accepted. They knew they could have gotten more money, but they didn’t have the time or desire to get the work done. They got their money so they could close on their other house. One of the important things was to listen to their needs. She really wanted to stay through June so the kids wouldn’t interrupt their school year. So, there they stay. I have a security deposit, they pay rent, and the house continues to appreciate.

I usually spend my time chasing houses. Now I understand why the experts on this site say to get the motivated sellers calling you.

Re: Well… - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on March 19, 2005 at 16:45:40:

Randy,

I sent you an email. Be sure and look for it.

Robert Campbell

Re: A Bedroom? - Posted by Killer Joe

Posted by Killer Joe on March 22, 2005 at 16:15:49:

Abby,

Cletus told me this story so I’ll tell it to you.

Seems there was this fellow that got a date with this girl he was persuing, only trouble was she would only go out with him if he took her to a really nice place for dinner and dancing.

So this fellow looks at his wardrobe and determines his best course of action was to buy a new dinner jacket. That would surely impress her. So off to the habidashers’ he goes. When he gets there the salesman shows him a few jackets and he decides on one.

While standing in front of the mirror the salesman suggests that perhaps it would be best if he bought some slacks to go with his jacket. He takes a good look in the mirror and agrees. So new slacks it is.

Now that his ensamble is coming together he notices that his cowboy belt just doesn’t cut it. A trip to the belt rack solves that problem. Back at the mirror once more, he realizes his shoes stand out like a sore thumb, and those white socks go great with his sneakers but won’t match his new look. So after paying for all his new garb, its off to the shoe store.

After looking at his budget, he realizes that this date is actually costing him more than he thought it would cost him when he agreed to take her dining and dancing. But he’s into the new clothes pretty heavy this far, and without the new shoes he’s still in limbo, so to speak. So he springs for a nice pair that brings his look together.

Back at the house he realizes that his cash is tapped out and he hasn’t even paid for the evening yet. And a haircut, almost forgot about the hair. Oh yea, wash the car, can’t impress her if the car don’t shine.

By now he’s beginning to think maybe he should have invited a girl out that didn’t require the kind of investment that this gals turning out to be. It all started out like a no-brainer, after all he had been on dates before, and this girl sure looked nice when he first met her. Oh well, I guess an expensive evening out can be put on his credit card, after all isn’t that why he had one.

Anyway, the night before their date she calls and tells him she has the flu and could they postpone the date for a couple of weeks. What’s he gonna say, No? In the meantime his friend calls and tells him the gang is going to Six Flags this Saturday and boy will it be fun! He thinks about it for a minute and realizes he’ll have to pass, he already shot his wad on this other girl and a trip to SFs would be out of the question at this point, so he ends up not going with his buddies. But hey, he still has the big date to look forward to, that is if she still wants to go out with him then. By now he’s trying to figure out how he let one little date complicate his life so much. Maybe next time he’ll think things through a little deeper.

Like I said, it’s just a story Cletus told me that I thought I’d tell you.

Your buddy,
Killer Joe

PS, If your scratching your head about now, and beginning to think this KJ fellow is the one that’s ‘smoking’ do yourself a favor. Save this post to a file on your computer in the same directory that you keep your RE files in and reread this in six months.

Interesting Analogy - Posted by abstract

Posted by abstract on March 22, 2005 at 16:38:25:

I think Cletus forgot to tell you the flip side, what if the date went in sync with plan, and you have know moved on to meet another girl of your dreams.